OHL Conference Final Previews

OHL Playoffs

The stage is set. The number one seed Ottawa 67’s will battle the number three seed Oshawa Generals for the Bobby Orr Trophy in the Ontario Hockey League’s Eastern Conference while the number two seed Saginaw Spirit host the number four seed Guelph Storm for the Wayne Gretzky Trophy in the Western Conference.

Before we look at how each team got to this point, here’s a look at my not so good playoff predictions to this point:

Predictions

The Guelph Storm made quick work of the Kitchener Rangers in the opening round and then fell behind 3-0 to the London Knights in round two before completing the reverse sweep. The Saginaw Spirit also made quick work of the Sarnia Sting before being taken to six games by the Sault Ste Marie Greyhounds. Sadly, I had both Saginaw and Guelph losing in the second round, both in 7 games.

Over in the Eastern Conference, the 67’s have yet to lose a game in these playoffs quickly taking care of business with sweeps over the Hamilton Bulldogs and the Sudbury Wolves. The Generals dispatched the Peterborough Petes in five games and after losing the first two games against the Niagara IceDogs and the leagues top offence, won 4 straight en route to the Conference Finals.

Let’s begin in the West.

Saginaw’s best chance of winning is to avoid getting into a run and gun game against the league’s second-best offence. The Storm just have too many weapons to beat you with in that type of game. If Saginaw can keep it close, then they have a chance of winning. And the head-to-head season series shows just that.

Guelph holds the advantage with the extra man, both in the regular season and the playoffs. But Saginaw’s penalty kill was superior in the regular season and has been nothing short of perfect in the playoffs to date, allowing just 2 goals in 38 shorthanded situations. Both teams are dominant at home and Saginaw has a slightly better road record. If this series comes down to specialty teams and home ice, the advantage belongs to Saginaw.

In the East, you would think the decided advantage goes to Ottawa. But most hockey pundits thought the same thing when Niagara was to face Oshawa. Kyle Keyser certainly has the ability to steal a game and a series, he did just that against Niagara and is on a record setting pace so far in these playoffs.

Much like Saginaw in the West, If Keyser and the Generals can keep it close, it is their best chance. The Generals won all the one-goal games between the two teams in the regular season – three of them in total. But when the 67’s dominated, they dominated, outscoring Oshawa 28-12 in the other five contests. I guess if you are looking for a bright light, Keyser was in the crease for two of those losses, losing both games 4-0.

Oshawa held a slight advantage on the powerplay in the regular season and while it’s been good in the playoffs clipping along at 27.7%, Ottawa’s has been out of this world at 35.9% (50% at home). Oshawa held a larger advantage on the PK in the regular season as well as the playoffs.

Here is a look at how the teams stacked up against each other, followed by my predictions:

Oshawa Generals vs Ottawa 67’s: Head To Head Stats
Summary
Description Result
Head to Head Oshawa 3-5-0-0 Ottawa 5-1-1-1
2017-2018 Oshawa 4-3-1-0 Ottawa 4-3-1-0
Last 5 Years Oshawa 15-20-1-2 Ottawa 23-9-4-2
Last 5 Years at Oshawa Oshawa 11-7-0-1 Ottawa 8-7-3-1
Last 5 Years at Ottawa Oshawa 4-13-1-1 Ottawa 15-2-1-1
Previous Meetings Ottawa 4 @ Oshawa 0
Oshawa 3 @ Ottawa 2
Oshawa 0 @ Ottawa 4
Ottawa 9 @ Oshawa 6
Oshawa 4 @ Ottawa 7
Ottawa 5 @ Oshawa 2
Oshawa 2 @ Ottawa 1 SO
Ottawa 3 @ Oshawa 4 OT
How the 2 teams match up
Ottawa Oshawa
Team Record 50-12-4-2-106 pts 44-20-4-0-92 pts
Division Ranking 1st East 2nd East
Conference Ranking 1st Eastern 3rd Eastern
League Ranking 1st 6th
Past 10 Games 6-3-1-0 7-2-1-0
Streak 3-0-1-0 3-0-0-0
Home Record 29-3-1-1 21-10-3-0
Away Record 21-9-3-1 23-10-1-0
GF 296 288
GA 183 216
PP (Overall) (60/259) 23.2% (71/290) 24.5%
PP (Home) (30/131) 22.9% (42/152) 27.6%
PP (Away) (30/128) 23.4% (29/138) 21.0%
PK (Overall) (62/276) 77.5% (49/270) 81.9%
PK (Home) (22/127) 82.7% (23/127) 81.9%
PK (Away) (40/149) 73.2% (26/143) 81.8%
PP vs. Opp. (9/29) 31% (6/36) 16.7%
PK vs. Opp. (6/36) 83.3% (9/29) 69%
Leading Rookie Rossi (29-36-65) Tullio (15-27-42)
Most PIM Clark – 98 Gross – 81
Team PIM/GM 13.1/Game 11.4/Game
Leading Scorers Felhaber (59-50-109) Saigeon (37-55-92)
Keating (22-67-89) Salinitri (48-40-88)
Maksimovich (35-46-81) Noel (34-47-81)
Chiodo (29-50-79) Neumann (45-34-79)
Chmelevski (35-40-75) McShane (34-35-69)
Leading After 1st 31-0-0-2 26-3-2-0
Leading After 2nd 40-0-2-2 32-1-0-0
Tied After 1st 17-3-2-0 12-3-0-0
Tied After 2nd 7-3-1-0 6-2-2-0
Trailing After 1st 2-9-2-0 6-14-2-0
Trailing After 2nd 3-9-1-0 6-17-2-0
Out Shooting Opponents 32-9-3-1 26-9-2-0
Out Shot by Opponents 13-2-1-1 17-9-2-0
1-Goal Games 12-5-4-2 14-4-4-0
2-Goal Games 10-1-0-0 5-5-0-0
3-Goal Games 13-3-0-0 11-7-0-0
Guelph Storm vs Saginaw Spirit: Head To Head Stats
Summary
Description Result
Head to Head Guelph 2-1-0-1 Saginaw 2-1-1-0
2017-2018 Guelph 3-1-0-0 Saginaw 1-2-1-0
Last 5 Years Guelph 12-7-0-1 Saginaw 8-9-2-1
Last 5 Years at Guelph Guelph 5-5-0-0 Saginaw 5-3-1-1
Last 5 Years at Saginaw Guelph 7-2-0-1 Saginaw 3-6-1-0
Previous Meetings Saginaw 5 @ Guelph 3
Saginaw 2 @ Guelph 8
Guelph 4 @ Saginaw 5 SO
Guelph 6 @ Saginaw 5 OT
How the 2 teams match up
Saginaw Guelph
Team Record 45-17-3-3-96 pts 40-18-6-4 — 90 points
Division Ranking 1st West 2nd Midwest
Conference Ranking 2nd Western 4th Western
League Ranking 3rd 8th
Past 10 Games 7-2-1-0 8-2-0-0
Streak 0-2-1-0 3-0-0-0
Home Record 24-7-2-1 23-9-1-1
Away Record 21-10-1-2 17-9-5-3
GF 294 308
GA 218 230
PP (Overall) (51/227) 22.5% (69/267) 25.8%
PP (Home) (24/107) 22.4% (37/146) 25.3%
PP (Away) (27/120) 22.5% (32/121) 26.4%
PK (Overall) (40/234) 82.9% (53/253) 79.1%
PK (Home) (20/118) 83.1% (28/126) 77.8%
PK (Away) (20/116) 82.8% (25/127) 80.3%
PP vs. Opp. (4/15) 26.7% (5/16) 31.3%
PK vs. Opp. (5/16) 68.8% (4/15) 73.3%
Leading Rookie Perfetti (37-37-74) Collins (6-10-16)
Most PIM Murray – 115 Ratcliffe – 105
Team PIM/GM 8.7/Game 9.9/Game
Leading Scorers Perfetti (37-37-74) Schnarr (34-68-102)
Tippett (33-41-74) Suzuki (34-60-94)
Wilde (19-51-70) Ratcliffe (50-32-82)
Coskey (31-32-63) Hawel (37-41-78)
McLeod (19-43-62) Entwistle (30-27-57)
Leading After 1st 31-3-1-0 24-3-3-0
Leading After 2nd 40-1-0-0 32-1-3-1
Tied After 1st 11-4-1-2 9-4-3-4
Tied After 2nd 4-3-2-2 4-0-1-2
Trailing After 1st 3-10-1-1 7-11-0-0
Trailing After 2nd 1-13-1-1 4-17-2-1
Out Shooting Opponents 27-8-3-2 28-8-2-2
Out Shot by Opponents 17-9-0-1 11-9-4-2
1-Goal Games 8-1-3-3 10-5-6-4
2-Goal Games 12-3-0-0 4-2-0-0
3-Goal Games 10-6-0-0 8-7-0-0

PREDICTIONS;

Saginaw in 7 games

Ottawa in 6 games

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